At least for me, Taleb’s books help reinforce and remind that the world is a complex place. As humans we tend to seek out models and simpifications. We then end up believing in these models, even when we shouldn’t.

Taleb is a lot like Karl Popper, but a whole lot easier to read.

If you liked Black Swan, I’d recommend Taleb’s Fooled by Randomness too.

No reasonable person disparages whole groups. Doctors are this…journalists are that.

I think Taleb’s point is that our motivations are what is key. We “sensemake” to use the similar concept from industrial psychologists like Karl Weick and his predecessors. Motivations drive sensemaking. Call it narrative, bias, culture, whatever…the point is that points of view matter. Black swans are all the more randomized because every event is actually thousands of events seen from thousands of perspectives.

My lesson from all this? Be less certain. Rely on deliberation and tentative conclusions.

Ryan Lanham